All or Nothing: Why Trump’s ‘Maximum Pressure’ strategy in Iran Doesn’t Work
Anti-government protests continue this week across Iran after authorities announced a fifty percent increase in petrol prices. The move sparked demonstrations by tens of thousands of civilians, prompting a strong pushback from Iranian security forces and a “near total internet shutdown.” On Tuesday, Amnesty International said the death toll had reached at least 106 people, with some reports suggesting as many as 200 people. The latest spell of unrest represents greater civilian outrage over the state of Iran’s economy, where inflation reached a record 48 percent this year.
But how does a country’s economy shrink by almost 10% in one year? America’s ‘maximum pressure’ strategy against Iran is likely to blame. The strategy dates back to 2018 when President Trump withdrew America from The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Adopted in 2015, the JCPOA limits Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief by the international community. Following America’s withdrawal, President Trump reimposed banking and oil sanctions on Iran, driving the country’s economy into recession. The Trump Administration stated it would only consider lifting sanctions if Iran complied with a list of twelve demands that required Iran to abandon its goal for regional dominance in the Middle East and surrender its most valuable military deterrents. The administration’s goal was to push Iran to craft a new deal on its nuclear program.
President Trump’s strategy, however, has yet to reap results. Following America’s withdraw from the JCPOA, Iran outright rejected America’s demand for Iran’s withdrawal in nuclear and regional activities. Instead, Iran pushed back with its own ‘maximum pressure’ strategy, escalating its violations of the JCOPA step by step in order to intimidate the U.S. into lifting sanctions. Iran’s violations peaked this month when the country announced it would begin injecting gas into the 1,044 centrifuges at Fordow, an open violation of the JCPOA.
The most recent falter in Iran’s economy and subsequent protests further proves that civilians bear the brunt of the pain of ‘maximum pressure’ strategies. According to Majid Takht Ravanchi, Iran’s permanent representative to the United Nations, “(America’s sanctions) are designed to harm the general public… they harm the poor more than the rich, the ill more than the healthy, and children more than adults. In short, those who are most vulnerable suffer the most.” According to Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, an expert at the Brookings Institution, food prices inflated by more than 70% between July 2018 and July 2019; “the short of it is that people are poorer than they were before.”
Yet according to President Trump, a ’max pressure’ campaign is the only way to force Iran to the negotiation table, where it will have no choice but to accept stricter controls on its nuclear and regional ambitions. The problem is that President Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ campaign is devoid of any incentives to encourage Iranian compliance. Political scientist Ariane Tabatabai explains, “There is a reason why sticks and carrots go together in diplomacy… you need to show that you’re willing to put some carrots on the table if the other side changes its behavior. Right now, that’s not the case. From Iran’s perspective, regardless of its compliance, it ended up with sticks. So it might as well not comply.” The result is a stalemate — America refuses to lift sanctions before they meet with Iran yet Iran refuses to talk until sanctions are lifted.
If America wants to see actual progress it will need to walk itself back from the brink and assure Iran that engaging in talks will not result in the complete surrender of Iranian sovereignty and government control. In that light, the U.S. could take a page out of Saudi Arabia’s book. Iran and Saudi Arabia have been locked in a proxy war over regional control in the Middle East since the Iranian Revolution in 1979. Experts predicted tensions would spill over in September this year after an unknown group bombed a Saudi oil facility. Instead of engaging in immediate retaliation, as a ‘maximum pressure’ campaign would require, Saudi officials asked the leaders of Iraq and Pakistan to speak to Iran about restarting de-escalation talks. The speaker of Iran’s Parliament, Ali Larijani, welcomed the gesture, “Iran is open to starting a dialogue with Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region.” Both sides stated the goal of initial talks is to reinstall confidence in both sides that long-term negotiations are possible. Until President Trump makes a similar good faith gesture to Iran it is unlikely Iran will voluntarily de-escalate activities in the region. Sadly, it will likely be every day citizens who will be forced to pay the price.
